PTA morning review of the hottest Jinsui futures 0

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Golden spike Futures: PTA morning comment 0716

Fundamentals: after a continuous sharp decline in the previous period, crude oil rebounded sharply today, stimulated by the positive earnings reports of U.S. listed companies, the sharp fall in the US dollar, and the reduction of crude oil inventories. The $60 level and the 5-day moving average were recovered. Yesterday, PX in Asia stabilized at USD FOB in South Korea, and PX micro in Europe basically stabilized at USD 900 FOB in Rotterdam. PTA market prices rose, with the spot price of about 7250 yuan/ton, up about 50 yuan/ton, and the external market price of about 860 dollars/ton. The domestic polyester chip market remained stable. Due to the influence of raw material MEG supply relative to the traditional industrial scope, the overall supply of polyester chips was small, and the price was deadlocked. The cash or March acceptance price of semi gloss chips in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions hovered around yuan/ton. The price of raw materials rose, PTA was temporarily supported, while the supply of polyester chips in the downstream was relatively small, and the price was deadlocked, which enhanced the confidence of market participants to do long, and the long buying intention increased. Shred buddy seems to be a useful multi-function tool. Yesterday, the startup rate of domestic PTA factories increased by another 6 percentage points to 92%, but its production still has a certain profit margin. According to the CFR China/Taiwan LC day spot price of PX on Tuesday, the production cost of PTA is only about 6650 yuan/ton, and the production profit is huge. The idle capacity of PTA continues to become a sword hanging high in the PTA market. In terms of the current PTA market supply, the domestic PTA plant operating rate has remained above 80% for most of the time after June, while the new PTA capacity plant was started in the second half of the year. For example, the 900000 ton/year PTA plant of Chongqing Oriental hope group may be started in June, which will have a great impact on the market supply structure. The new production capacity of PX will also be in the second half of the year. 8. A variety of experimental curves can be displayed: force displacement, force time, stress-strain, etc. are released intensively, and the export orders of polyester products are still declining, so the long-term trend of PTA is not optimistic

technical aspect: PTA basically maintained a narrow range shock pattern yesterday, the transaction was mild, the position continued to increase, and the daily line closed slightly negative, but the center of gravity shifted slightly, and it still maintained an upward trend in the short term. However, the trading volume is shrinking day by day, and the momentum of long upside has declined, so there is a need for adjustment in the short term

operation suggestions: it is expected to be dominated by today's shock, multiple light positions will continue to be held, the stop loss is 7200, and the intraday short-term callback is dominated by long

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