China's shipbuilding industry will face multiple t

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China's shipbuilding industry will face multiple tests such as overcapacity

on December 27, 2007, the 4500 cubic meter self-propelled trailing suction dredger "tianhaijun 6" designed and invested by Zhejiang Tianhai Shipbuilding Technology Development Co., Ltd. was successfully launched, which is the second engineering ship invested and built by this private enterprise. The picture shows "tianhaijun 6" going to the water

in recent years, the continued prosperity of the global shipbuilding market has excited the shipbuilding industry. All over the country, conditional and no data also show that pieces of the ground shipbuilding projects are scrambling to develop large-scale shipbuilding development plans. The trend of China becoming the world's largest shipbuilding country is irresistible

however, in an interview, many experts said: "China's shipbuilding industry will face multiple challenges in the future, such as overcapacity, the continued appreciation of the RMB and the rapid rise in costs." Many uncertain factors are accumulating, and China's shipbuilding industry will face major tests. The rejuvenating China's shipbuilding industry needs to think calmly in prosperity

"world number one" is only a matter of time

"it is only a matter of time before China becomes the world's largest shipbuilding country." Gao Sheng, a researcher at China's Samsung Economic Research Institute, said in an interview: "as the world's most important shipbuilding base, the gap between China and Japan and South Korea is rapidly narrowing."

according to the statistics express of the shipbuilding industry, China's shipbuilding completion in 2007 was 18.93 million deadweight tons, an increase of 30% over the previous year; The new ship orders received were 98.45 million deadweight tons, an increase of 132% over the previous year; Orders for hand-held ships were 158.89 million deadweight tons, an increase of 131% over the previous year

according to the statistical data of Clarkson research on the world's total shipbuilding volume, in DWT terms, China's shipbuilding completion, new ship orders and hand-held ship orders account for about 23%, 42% and 33% of the world's ship market share, respectively, an increase of 4, 12 and 9 percentage points over the previous year

a large number of data show that China is experiencing a shipbuilding boom. The Chinese government has formulated policies to actively promote the development of China's shipbuilding industry and promulgated the medium and long term development plan of China's shipbuilding industry; It is proposed to focus on the development of collectivization and concentrate on the construction of three shipbuilding bases in the Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Estuary and the Pearl River Estuary; We will continue to implement preferential policies for the shipbuilding industry, including providing low interest loans, extending the repayment period, reducing import tariffs, and implementing accelerated or straight-line depreciation

Gao Sheng said, "China's shipbuilding industry has obvious advantages."

shipbuilding is an industry with intensive labor, capital and technology, and labor cost is very important. China has a large number of labor forces, and the cost is far lower than that of large shipbuilding countries such as Europe, Japan and South Korea. The per capita wage cost of Japan and South Korea is about 7 ~ 8 times that of China, and the proportion of wages in Chinese shipbuilding enterprises in sales revenue is generally less than 10%

Gao Sheng pointed out: "as a labor-intensive industry, the comprehensive labor cost calculated by considering both human cost and productivity plays a key role in cost control. The moving speed of 9 beams (shortcut keys and free settings) is 0.2 ~ 500mm/min. In the next 5 ~ 10 years, the comprehensive labor cost of China's shipbuilding industry will still be far lower than that of Korean enterprises."

in addition, Gao Sheng said, "China's shipbuilding sites are rich in resources and easy to form production capacity advantages." Compared with Japan, South Korea and other countries, China has a long coastline, which makes it easier to expand shipbuilding bases. The capacity of Japanese and Korean shipyards is close to saturation, and the production of conventional ships cannot be taken into account, which makes many order rim an Australian company to flow into Chinese shipyards alone

the labor and production advantages of Chinese shipbuilding enterprises are mainly reflected in the construction of conventional ships such as bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships. These are the three main ship types of Chinese shipyards, most of which are used for export and occupy a large market share in the international market. "Chinese shipbuilding enterprises have obtained a large number of orders for conventional ships such as bulk carriers through low prices." Gao Sheng said

the results of competitiveness comparison of domestic shipyards are unexpected. Private shipyards have strong strength and flexible mechanism. The rapid rise of private shipyards in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places is becoming an important force to undertake shipbuilding orders

according to statistics, in 2007, the shipbuilding completion volume of local shipyards reached 8.33 million dwt, accounting for 40% of the national total. The newly undertaken ship orders were 58.46 million dwt and the hand-held new ship orders were 82.49 million dwt, accounting for 60% and 54% of the national total respectively

many obstacles in development

"Chinese shipbuilding enterprises are undoubtedly the most potential, but they are also relatively fragile." Li Yushan, a senior engineer of Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co., Ltd., expressed concern: "at present, the number and amount of orders accumulated in China are huge, the production task has been scheduled until 2009, and the new orders can't be delivered until 2011. The appreciation of the RMB makes the profits of Chinese shipbuilding enterprises virtually eroded."

Li Yushan pointed out that at present, all shipyards receive orders in US dollars. According to the prediction of relevant parties, for every 1 percentage point appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, Chinese shipbuilding enterprises will lose 4billion yuan. In fact, the profit of China's shipbuilding industry in 2007 was only more than 20 billion yuan, which means that without taking measures, the annual appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will exceed 5%, and the annual profit of the entire shipbuilding industry will be eroded

"after 2010, the problem of excess global shipbuilding capacity will be prominent." Li Yushan said, "the influx of a large amount of capital into the shipbuilding market has led to a sharp increase in China's shipbuilding capacity, which will double in the next few years. The global shipbuilding overcapacity will inevitably affect a large number of Chinese shipbuilding enterprises."

generally speaking, 70% of the ship price is the purchase cost. Due to the impact of rising iron ore prices and transportation costs, the price of marine steel has returned to the upward trend since the second half of 2007. Li Yushan pointed out that a large number of new ship orders need to be delivered, the market demand for marine steel will continue to be strong, and the price of marine steel will continue to rise. As the main raw material of shipbuilding, the price trend of steel has a great impact on the shipbuilding cost

for a long time, China's R & D investment in the field of marine equipment has been seriously insufficient, and China's ship supporting equipment has become a major bottleneck in the development of China's shipbuilding industry, such as banning disposable plastic bags, taxing consumers, etc. Chen Bin, director of the industry department of the national development and Reform Commission, pointed out when talking about China's shipbuilding industry: "the most terrible thing is that the key supporting equipment we want to import is precisely in the hands of our competitors."

according to Gao Sheng, most of the navigation, communication, cabin, automation equipment, motors, electrical appliances and other key components of Chinese ocean going ships still need to be imported. At present, the loading rate of domestic equipment in China is less than 40%, far lower than that of Japan and South Korea, which is more than 85%. The proportion of imported marine low-speed engine, medium speed engine and marine generator set in the Chinese market (in terms of horsepower) is 50%, 50% and 70% respectively. Some marine equipment products designed and manufactured by China can only be used for coastal small ships and inland ships. "We will build so many ships in the future. How dare we accept orders without implementing supporting facilities? Especially local shipbuilding enterprises, who do not have their own supporting resources, what will they take to support ships in the future?"

with the improvement of China's shipbuilding capacity and the increase of emerging shipbuilding enterprises, the demand for human resources is increasing. There is a shortage of key talents in ship design, manufacturing, management and inspection, and enterprises are competing fiercely; There is a shortage of skilled workers in key positions and types of work, and the outsourcing labor team cannot be stable for a long time, which has affected the production progress of the shipyard and the delivery of ships on schedule to a certain extent

"the shortage of high-quality human resources will become another bottleneck affecting the development of China's shipbuilding industry." Zhurujing, a researcher at the China Shipbuilding Industry Economic Research Center, pointed out: "the number of senior managers and technicians in Chinese shipbuilding enterprises is obviously insufficient, and there is a serious shortage of experienced skilled workers. Due to the relatively low income, enterprises cannot retain talents, and skilled workers are lost in large numbers."

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